Yet Another Analysis Firm Predicts Apple’s Demise.


It seems to be getting a ritual to predict the upcoming downfall of Apple by various analysts and almost all of them always get it wrong. This time, it’s the folks at Oppenheimer that believe Apple is about to embark on a decade-long malaise because it has stopped innovating and is becoming more and more dependent on its iPhone.

In other words, they think that Apple has become complacent and is resting on its laurels while everyone else around them is looking for the next big innovation that will drive their growth.

Here is the thing. There is some truth to what the analysts have been saying. There is no doubt that Apple is more dependent on the iPhone for driving its sales than ever before and newer products like the Apple Watch has failed to set the world on fire.

The buzz around the tech world seems to about AI, the internet of things and machine learning. These are industries where Apple does not have a strong foothold if any.

The problem though with these kinds of predictions though is that they assume to know what direction technology will take in the next decade. To understand this fallacy, just look a decade back and where we were.

The iPhone had not been released. Microsoft still believed that the PC will remain at the center of everyone’s lives forever. No one foresaw that upstart Netflix would change the landscape of content consumption in just a few years.

These are just a few examples and plenty others exist to see how difficult it is to look 10 years down the line in an industry that changes as quickly as technology.

The analysis of Apple’s future also mentions that the company will make a tremendous amount of money from its 10th-anniversary version of the iPhone for ‘one big last hurrah’ and then go into decline. Again, this does not take into account the untarnished brand value of Apple and the difficulty of replicating its success.

Apple may be caught out by an unexpected industry change but it is difficult to see Apple lose out in quality and craftsmanship to another company. Every other competitor apart from Samsung is struggling to survive and would kill for margins like the kind Apple works on.

Apple has never missed a technology innovation wave as of now and it has enough money in the bank to buy its way into any fork that might appear on the road.

As they say, rumors of Apple’s demise are greatly exaggerated.

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